Takes from last week
I went 2-1 ATS last week and am currently 17-5-1 for the year. No Ric Flair .gif because of Navy’s tough loss ATS.
As stated, Navy gave me my first loss ATS for the last 3 weeks. The Midshipmen were up 21 at one point and then eventually could not cover the points. The other two games went as planned. Georgia State easily covered at Coastal and Arkansas State rolled at Georgia Southern.
Remember, picks are listed in order of confidence and the lines are from Bovada as of publish time.
This Weeks Hot Picks
South Alabama @ Troy (-17) Wed. Oct 11th 7:00pm ESPN2
Our own Scott Watkins previewed this Battle of the Belt and you can read it here.
He did a much better job of previewing the game than I could and states “Troy has had a week and a half to soak in the hype and turn its focus to its arch rival. The Trojans are favored by 17 in this one but Troy hasn’t shown the ability to put up a lot of points this year. South Alabama will struggle offensively even more, though, without a true identity. Troy 24 South Alabama 10”
I think The Jags put up a few more points than that against Troy, but like Scott, I don’t believe Troy covers the spread.
South Alabama (+17)
UNLV @ Air Force (-7.5) Sat. Oct 14th 1:00pm ATSN
Needless to say these two teams are struggling and need a shot in the arm.
This year Air Force is 3-2 ATS and 1-4 overall, with their only win being against FCS VMI. FBS opponents to date are 18-3 overall, and include a one loss Michigan and two undefeateds in San Diego State and Navy. Needless to say, Air Force has had a tough schedule so far.
The Falcons do have a few things going for them. They are number one in penalties (in a good way) in FBS. They are number 4 in passing efficiency, which is great to complement their triple option style offense, and they had a great showing last week against Navy. Coming back from a large deficit to take a 4 point lead with 2 minutes left and still leaving with a loss hurts, but it does show progress.
After losing to FCS Howard in the opening week UNLV has gone 2-2 overall and 3-1 ATS. Last week the Rebels got manhandled by a better team in San Diego State, losing by 31. The same San Diego State that squeaked out a win against Air Force by 4.
Statistically, UNLV is just bad on defense. They are towards the bottom of the FBS in sacks, first down defense, rushing defense, passing defense and therefore total defense. The only offensive bright spot is at rushing, where they are ranked 13th in the nation, passing on the other hand is much like the defensive statistics.
I like UNLV’s QB, Armani Rogers. If I am wrong on this pick it will because he found his rhythm and took over the game. I don’t think that will happen.
Air Force (-7.5)
Navy @ Memphis (-4) Sat. Oct 14th 2:45pm ESPNU
Unlike the Air Force-UNLV game, these two teams have seen much success so far this season. There is only one loss between both these teams being Memphis losing at UCF two weeks ago.
I believe this game comes down to keeping the ball out of Memphis’ hands. Currently the Tigers are in the top 20 of many passing and offensive statistics. It will be in the best interest of the Midshipmen to utilize their top 5 Time Of Possession stat and run the ball down the Tiger’s throat as the clock quickly tics down to zero.
Currently the Memphis rushing defense is ranked 93rd in FBS and I don’t see that getting any better this weekend. Navy’s triple-option offense will be tough, and I do not see Memphis being able to slow it down.
Memphis is 3-7 ATS for the last 10 home games they are favored. They do not typically pay up to par at the Liberty Bowl, and we should see that trend continue.